Asymptotic Exponentiality of First Exit Times for Recurrent Markov Processes and Applications to Changepoint Detection

نویسندگان

  • Alexander G. Tartakovsky
  • Moshe Pollak
  • Aleksey S. Polunchenko
چکیده

We study asymptotic properties (as A →∞) of the first exit time from the interval [0, A] of a non-negative Harris-recurrent Markov process. It is shown that under certain fairly general conditions the limiting distribution of the suitably normalized first exit time is exponential E(1) and that the moment generating function converges to that of E(1). The method of proof is based on considering the quasi-stationary distribution and its relation to the normalizing factor. The results are applied to the evaluation of a distribution of run length to false alarm and local false alarm probabilities of CUSUM and Shiryaev-Roberts changepoint detection procedures.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Asymptotic Exponentiality of the Distribution of First Exit times for a Class of Markov Processes with Applications to Quickest Change Detection

We consider the first exit time of a nonnegative Harris-recurrent Markov process from the interval [0, A] as A → ∞. We provide an alternative method of proof of asymptotic exponentiality of the first exit time (suitably standardized) that does not rely on embedding in a regeneration process. We show that under certain conditions the moment generating function of a suitably standardized version ...

متن کامل

Pointwise Estimates and Exponential Laws in Metastable Systems via Coupling Methods

We show how coupling techniques can be used in some metastable systems to prove that mean metastable exit times are almost constant as functions of the starting microscopic configuration within a “metastable set”. In the example of the Random Field Curie Weiss model, we show that these ideas can also be used to prove asymptotic exponentiality of normalized metastable escape times.

متن کامل

Asymptotic Analysis of Binary Gas Mixture Separation by Nanometric Tubular Ceramic Membranes: Cocurrent and Countercurrent Flow Patterns

Analytical gas-permeation models for predicting the separation process across  membranes (exit compositions and area requirement) constitutes an important and necessary step in understanding the overall performance of  membrane modules. But, the exact (numerical) solution methods suffer from the complexity of the solution. Therefore, solutions of nonlinear ordinary differential equations th...

متن کامل

Extended Geometric Processes: Semiparametric Estimation and Application to ReliabilityImperfect repair, Markov renewal equation, replacement policy

Lam (2007) introduces a generalization of renewal processes named Geometric processes, where inter-arrival times are independent and identically distributed up to a multiplicative scale parameter, in a geometric fashion. We here envision a more general scaling, not necessar- ily geometric. The corresponding counting process is named Extended Geometric Process (EGP). Semiparametric estimates are...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2008